In short:
After the historic peak of 2017 (up to $600-750 per kilo), the Madagascar vanilla market has seen a sharp decline in recent seasons, driven by global supply far exceeding demand: over 2,000 tonnes of prepared vanilla were stockpiled at the start of 2025, close to 80% of annual global demand. Export prices are now around $40 to $70 per kilo for industrial-grade vanilla, with premium vanilla trading above $100. This situation does little to benefit small producers, which reinforces the value of a direct, transparent buying channel.
Why has the vanilla market fluctuated so much in recent years?
Madagascar vanilla is a particularly volatile raw material: its production depends on hand-pollination flower by flower, weather hazards (cyclones), and a global market where Madagascar alone supplies about 80%. After the spectacular surge of 2016-2017, when the price per kilo reached $600 to $750 following poor harvests, the market swung the other way: overproduction combined with declining industrial demand sent prices tumbling.
Where does the market stand for the current season?
Several recent indicators paint a picture of the industry's current situation:
- A large accumulated stock: at the start of 2025, over 2,000 tonnes of prepared vanilla were stockpiled in Madagascar and abroad, a surplus inherited from a record 4,300 tonnes exported during the 2023-2024 season, partly unsold.
- Prices stabilized at a low level: vanilla destined for the food industry trades at around $40 to $70 per kilo, far below the $250 set by the Malagasy government in 2020 before the market was liberalized in 2023.
- A preserved premium segment: high-end vanilla, which makes up 10 to 15% of the market, continues to trade above $100 per kilo, a differentiation that benefits the best-selected, best-cured pods.
- Falling revenue for exporters: in the first quarter of 2025, Malagasy vanilla export revenue fell 45% year-on-year, mainly due to lower volumes sold amid a global oversupply.
What does this change for you, as an individual or a professional?
A declining global market doesn't automatically translate into lower prices for the end consumer: between the Malagasy producer and the buyer in Europe, several middlemen (collectors, exporters, wholesalers) capture a large share of the margin, particularly during periods of oversupply, when they can buy cheaply from producers without necessarily passing the drop on downstream. This is exactly what a direct buying channel corrects: by working with the producer with no middleman, the fair price is better distributed, regardless of the global market's speculative swings.
Should we expect prices to rise again?
The global vanilla market as a whole remains on a structural growth path, driven by demand for natural flavors in food and cosmetics: its value is estimated at $3.34 billion, with growth expected to reach $5.17 billion by 2030. In the short term, however, working through the accumulated stock suggests prices should stay subdued until the excess supply has been absorbed.
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